The latest survey conducted by India Today and Karvy ‘Mood of the Nation’ has predicted that Bharatiya Janata Party led NDA is going to miss the magic figure of 272 if the Lok Sabha Polls are conducted today. The survey also has stated that NDA would gain 35% vote share and win 237 seats and may fall short of 35 seats to retain power.
On other hand, the survey predicted Congress party led UPA may emerge victorious in 107 LS segments with an estimated vote share of 33%. Given that both the national parties won’t be able to grab power on their own, other regional parties are expected to play an important role. The Survey reveals that ‘Others’ would win 140 seats with a significant vote share of 32%. The survey has also projected three possible cases:
1. If Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, SP and BSP joins UPA ahead of election, then UPA may win close to the magic figure number -269 and NDA is estimated to win just 219 seats.
2. If PDP, SP, BSP and TMC joins UPA before the polls and if NDA gains the support of AIADMK, YSRCP, TRS and BJD, then both of groups would gain an equal vote share of 44%. But, UPA is more likely to cross the half way mark of 272 and NDA may settle down with 257.
3. Final case: If PDP, BSP, SP and TMC join the Congress led UPA and If NDA gets the support from YSRCP and AIADMK before polls, UPA may emerge victorious by getting 272 seats and NDA would only get 234 seats.
So, in all possible cases, it’s not going to be an easy election for BJP. The tight fight between both the alliances is evident and also, Others are estimated to play a major role in 2019 general polls.
