It is very difficult to read what is in the mind of YSR Congress party president and Andhra Pradesh chief minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, they say. Even his closest of his associates in the party do not know what is going on in his mind.
Maybe, perhaps, he would share his thoughts with his political strategist Prashant Kishor or his associate Rishi Raj Singh, who is now heading the team of Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), hired by him for the next elections.
But the party leaders try to guess what is Jagan thinking and come to certain conclusions based on what he speaks at the party meetings and public forums.
The latest speculation doing rounds in the party circles about the possibility of Jagan going for early elections is based on this pure guess.
According to the talk in the party, Jagan is contemplating going in for early elections to the state assembly in the first half of 2023, at least 10 months ahead of the schedule. This is essentially to prevent further loss of ground for the ruling YSRC party in the state.
“The inputs given by the I-PAC survey team and the intelligence reports have given a clear indication that the anti-incumbency wave is gradually building up in the state and it might intensify further in the coming months,” a party source said.
Especially, there is a resentment brewing among the unemployed youth and urban middle class sections due to lack of developmental activities, employment opportunities and collapse of the industrial sector.
The government employees are upset with the Jagan rule as they have not got what they wanted in the Pay Revision Commission and other benefits, while the farmers are suffering from frequent power cuts, lack of remunerative prices etc.
“Though the YSRC vote bank is still solid at the village and mandal level, the situation is turning against the government at the urban areas. Massive corruption at the ground level by the YSRC leaders is also one such reason for the anti-incumbency,” the source said.
Though Jagan has told the party leaders to strive to get 175 out of 175 assembly seats in the next elections, he is aware that it is not easy to retain even 151 seats his party had won in 2019; and if the anti-incumbency climate builds up by next elections, he will have tough time in retaining power.
That is precisely why Jagan is said to be thinking of going to early elections in 2023 itself.
“Since the party’s support base is still strong at the grassroots level due to his welfare schemes, he can still win the elections comfortably in the early elections,” the source said.
So forget 175 or even 151, even if the YSRC gets around 100-110 seats, Jagan won’t mind, as long as he comes to power in the state again. Since it is the do-or-die battle for the TDP, it will die gradually if it doesn’t come to power in the next elections.
“Even if the TDP’s tally increases to 60 or 70, it may not take much time for the party to collapse. Since Naidu won’t have the steam to wait for another five years to bring it to power, Jagan may lure majority of the TDP MLAs into the YSRC to increase his strength in the assembly,” the source added.
