It is a known fact that the 2019 assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh could decide the fate of Telugu Desam Party Chief N. Chandrababu Naidu’s political career. While 1999 election defined his political career and set the direction for making him one of the most capable leaders and administrators of India, 20 years later, 2019 election could will definitely be an important milestone.
The 1999 election made history for being the first election fought after TDP Founder Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao’s (NTR) death which was fought by the Telugu Desam and Congress with full might for 294 assembly seats in united Andhra Pradesh. It was also an election following the famous coup in which Chandrababu Naidu had dethroned his father-in-law to stake claim due to the interference from NTR’s second wife, Lakshmi Parvathi and save the TDP. It was an election to test his new style politics and administrative skills apart from his leadership for the TDP without its founder.
Despite fielding new faces and trying new strategies in the 1999 elections, the Telugu Desam Party won 180 seats with a thumping majority while the Congress won exactly half of them, 91 seats. However, days after polling had finished in Andhra Pradesh in 1999, several bureaucrats and pro-Congress officers and other union leaders visited Congress leader Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy to congratulate the party on their impending win.
With bouquets, several of them made queues to the Congress’ Office in Hyderabad, declaring the party’s win, many days prior to the results were announced. However, when the results were out, the hopes of Congress party were dashed as against their expectations. The party also publicly claimed and acknowledged that it had misjudged the mood of the people and expected high anti-incumbency among voters.
If one compares these events from the 1999 assembly elections to the current scenario, a similar trend is being repeated. YSR Congress is expecting a huge win with massive voter turnout visible during this election. Their gimmicks of declaring their win on social media and getting a Chief Minister’s name plate done for their party president Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy all point to a similar trend that his late father also exhibited as a Congress leader.
On the other hand, TDP has reiterated confidence but has been largely silent about it. While it has declared to win nearly 130 seats of the total 175 seats, large women voters’ participation in the election also points to a pro-incumbency vote. However, pollsters are still not clear about what the trend indicates. While some claim that Jagan has a clear edge and cannot be stopped from becoming the Chief Minister, TDP and its allies believe they will win the election.
Going by the current wave of public declarations YSR Congress party and its supporters about Jagan becoming the Chief Minister, it is evident that they are confident. However, YSRCP needs to watch out for signs of over-confidence and keep an ear to the ground. But, as the TDP claims, is there an undercurrent of pro-TDP wave which is being misjudged and misinterpreted by pollsters and media? Will 2019 assembly elections be a repeat of the 1999 win for the Telugu Desam Party? We are yet to see the outcome.
